Few in the know doubt the fact that Iran has acquired the knowledge to produce an atomic bomb. Israeli intelligence is far more concerned with Iran's pace of advancement towards the bomb making than American or European intelligence sources. The question in Israel is no longer if Israel should eliminate the Iranian threat but rather when?
The (Prime Minister Benjamin)Netanyahu government is skeptical about the Obama administration's ability to reverse Iran's quest for a nuclear weapon. And Hillary Clinton's statement about offering the Arab Gulf states a protective umbrella against an Iranian nuclear threat intensified the Sunni-Arab state's skepticism over America's capacity to stop the Iranians. In fact, in the Middle East, it appears as if the weak and indecisive Obama administration has resigned itself to the reality of a nuclear Iran.
For several years now, a game of mutual intimidation has gone on between Israel and Iran. The Islamic Republic of Iran and its theocratic leadership advertised its successful testing of long-range missiles, while Israel responded with public show of long range refueling of its aircrafts. Iran acquired sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles to defend against aerial attacks, Israel responded in September of 2007 with the destruction of the Syrian nuclear facility.
This back and forth "game" is serious. Both sides understand the consequences of a nuclear attack. And although former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani boasted that an Iranian attack would destroy Israel, an Israeli counterattack would only create acceptable damage. Mr. Rafsanjani's point was that the Israel's smallness makes it vulnerable to total destruction, whereas Iran's huge size would deem an Israeli attack as only partly successful.
The real issue is not rooted in the impact of bombing by one side or the other. While an Iranian bombing of Israel might indeed devastate the Jewish State, it would not destroy it. An Israeli counterpunch could do a much greater damage to Iran than anticipated by Mr. Rafsanjani.
But let us assume that the Israeli Air Force attacked the nuclear facilities spread throughout Iran, and damaged or destroyed its capacity to produce a bomb for at least 3-5 years. It would certainly give Israel a respite and partial relief to its existential anxieties.
What Israel cannot eliminate by attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities is the know-how acquired by Iranian scientists, and it would become just a matter of time before the Iranians restore their nuclear capacity.
The consequences of an Israeli attack would doubtless be wide condemnation of the Jewish State in international forums and the U.N. in particular. More importantly, however, such a strike would solidify the mullahs' control of Iran by appealing to the patriotism of all Iranians. It would force reformers and democrats who seek change to close ranks with the despised authoritarian regime.
As long as the Ayatollah Khamenei and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime remains in tact, bombing and destroying most of Iran's nuclear facilities is, at best, temporary relief. The cost of such bombing, however, might be too prohibitive. Iran would, undoubtedly, unleash its dependencies: Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas against Israel's population centers with much greater damage to Israel civilian population than caused during the Second Lebanon War of 2006.
Israel and the U.S. must focus on eliminating the current Iranian regime. The regime change should be undertaken by the oppressed minority groups within Iran, who are currently combating the regime and its Revolutionary Guards. The persecuted and disaffected Iranian minorities (at least 55 percent of Iran's population) - some of them experiencing ethnic cleansing, such as Ahwazi Arabs in the oil rich Khuzestan region of southwestern Iran, are ready to fight and die for their cause.
Military and financial support to the Ahwazi Arabs rebels would increase the chances for the disablement of Iran's oil producing capacity. Since oil is the primary source of revenue for Iran, it would create a tremendous hardship for all Iranians-Persians included.
This would cause domestic discontent and expedite a regime change from within.
The largely Sunni-Muslim Kurds have been fighting the oppressive regime of the Ayatollahs for years, and they have made huge sacrifices in lives and property in seeking to attain at least cultural and religious rights. The Kurds, who number 7-10 million strong out of Iran's 70 million people, have inflicted significant damage on the Tehran regime. Moreover, the Kurdish area is also oil rich ... providing the Kurdish rebels with weapons, training and funds would result in a serious challenge to the Revolutionary Guards and to the regime's survivability.
Last July, the Iranian theocracy hung 13 Baluchi students. The Sunni-Muslim Baluch minority in Iran (4-5 million strong), much like the Kurds, seek self determination for their people. The Kurds and Baluch are the only large nations in the Middle East without a sovereign national homeland. Like the Kurds, spread through Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, the Baluch people demand an independent Baluchistan as the homeland for their people in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.
The Baluchis, Kurds, and Arab Ahwazis are determined to bring change into Iran, and their rebellion won't subside anytime soon. The recent fraudulent elections in Iran, and the huge anti-regime demonstration made the minority groups even more convinced that time is on their side.
Azeris comprise the largest minority group, numbering over 20 million or one third of Iran's population. Their mother tongue is Turkish, and they aspire to unite with their much better off brethrens in Azerbaijan. The Azeris, too, have been fighting the Tehran regime at a minimum for cultural autonomy.
Once the fire is lit by coordinated attacks coming from all corners of Iran: in the north and northwest by Kurds and Azeris, in the South and the southeast by Baluchis and Ahwazi Arabs, supported by America and Israel, it would provide a backwind for the Persian democrats seeking a democratic, free, and fair Iran. Only in coordination with such a collective uprising against the mullah regime, would the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities be effective and complete.
Joseph Puder can be reached at jpuder2001@yahoo.com.
By JOSEPH PUDER, For The Bulletin Friday, March 19, 2010
http://thebulletin.us/articles/2010/03/19/commentary/op-eds/doc4ba3a44ee3379659236463.txt
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