Pak Will Be Failed State By 2015: Cia

Pakistan will be a "failed" state by 2015 as it would be
affected by civil war, complete Talibanisation and struggle for
control of its nuclear weapons, premier US intelligence agencies have
said in an assessment report.

Forecasting a "Yugoslavia-like fate" for Pakistan, the US National
Intelligence Council (NIC) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in a
jointly prepared Global Futures Assessment Report have said "by year
2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed,
inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear
weapons and complete Talibanisation".

"Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and
economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and
ethnic friction," said the report quoted by former Pakistan High
Commissioner to United Kingdom Wajid Shamsul Hasan in an article in
the ' South Asia Tribune '.

Titled 'Will Pakistan Army invade Balochistan as per the NIC-CIA
Plan', the former senior diplomat said "in the context of Balochistan,
one would like to refer to the 2015 NIC report. It forecast a
Yugoslavia-like fate for Pakistan.

"The military operation that has been put in motion there would
further distance the Baloch people from rest of the country. That
perhaps is the (NIC-CIA) Plan," Hasan said.

"Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of
opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic
parties. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the Central
government's control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland
and the economic hub of Karachi," the former diplomat quoted the
NIC-CIA report as saying.

Expressing apprehension, Hasan asked, "are our military rulers working
on a similar agenda or something that has been laid out for them in
the various assessment reports over the years by the National
Intelligence Council in joint collaboration with CIA?"

His article comes in the backdrop of growing violence between the
Balochis and the Pakistani security forces stationed in the gas-rich
province.

The recent moves by the security forces to evict all residents within
a 15-km radius of the Pakistan's biggest Sui gas plant and the
decision to create a cantonment near it has given a fillip to the
anti-Islamabad insurgent activities of Balochi groups like the
Balochistan Liberation Army, reports said.

The reports said Pakistan was taking the "most drastic step yet" in
its bid to crush a deadly tribal rebellion by forcibly evicting all
residents from around 500 dwellings within 15 kilometres of the
country's biggest Sui gasfield.

The Army says such a step would prevent further attacks and protect
residents from the devastating consequences of a major explosion, the
reports said.


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