Iran’s role in Afghanistan - Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri
Perhaps the key to any meaningful Indian role in Afghanistan lies with Iran. Iran alone can provide India access for trade or provision of military support. To that extent it is vital for India to understand the Iranian perspective and thinking on the vital subject of Afghanistan. This article provides most invaluable insights into Iranian thinking on the subject.
Iran has traditionally been hostile to the Taliban. However in the given scenario, Iran, the writer states unequivocally, can either play a negative role by seeking to keep American and Western attention and resources tied down in Afghanistan or play a positive role by facilitating reconciliation and reconstruction. To that extent a prolonged US engagement in Afghanistan suits Iran tactically, even if it has to temporarily support the Taliban. However Iran, he says, can equally play a very positive role in the reconstruction and pacification of Afghanistan, provided it is permitted to do so. This may call for steps by the West to diplomatically engage Iran and reduce hostility with that State. However, the writer clearly spells out that a return of the Taliban in power in Kabul cannot be viewed favourably by Iran; that it can play the Tajik card and it may need help in doing so. An excellent espousal of the Iranian position which we need to study in great depth.
In order to understand Iran’s role in Afghanistan after the departure of the US forces, the article is divided into five sections. The first one, however, deals with the question itself; whether the US withdrawal is likely to happen. The second section presents a recent brief history of the Iran-Afghan relations. The third part focuses on the why and how of a possible Taliban return. The fourth and fifth sections shall be on Iran’s role in Afghanistan. This part deals with the issue from two different perspectives.
Withdrawal of the US forces: myth or reality
The question of the “US withdrawal from Afghanistan” itself is contentious. Although both US and UK authorities claim that they will pursue a gradual withdrawal in 2012-2014, the likelihood of such action is dubious; they are not very much clear about leaving Afghanistan. Contradictory statements do exist among the Western chiefs. Some believe that the action will be dangerous and risky. Some others do not hope for a complete withdrawal. In this regard, David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, had stated that, “there will be no UK troops in combat roles in Afghanistan by 2015.” The statement vividly implies that there will not be a total withdrawal; Western involvement in Afghanistan will continue even after 2014, perhaps a non-military engagement. In fact, any reductions of the US or NATO forces, will depend on the circumstances and conditions on the ground.
In case of a US withdrawal, however, what will be the role of Iran in Afghanistan? The role of the Islamic Republic of Iran needs to be understood in two different contexts. But, before proceeding, two issues must be taken into consideration. It is advisable to refer first to a recent brief history of Iran-Afghan relations and then to follow the present internal scenario in Afghanistan itself by focusing on the Taliban’s likely rise to power.
Iran-Afghan ties: a flashback
The two States for most part of their relations have benefited from close strategic cooperation. In the reconstruction of Afghanistan Iran has been an active player, working on various areas, such as infrastructure, energy, economic, medical and cultural. However, Afghanistan’s ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran became strained when Taliban took over. From the very beginning of the emergence of Taliban, relations with Taliban deteriorated due to number of reasons, such as harsh treatment of Shias and the execution of Iranian diplomats by Taliban. Iran, no doubt, played a key role in the overthrow of Taliban. It has since helped revive Afghanistan’s economy and infrastructure. Despite some differences such as Iran’s toughened policy on Afghan asylum seekers and the periodic disputes over the water rights of the Helmand River, business boomed between the two nations since the overthrow of Taliban in 2001. It has been claimed that Iran is considered to be among the first ten top investors in Afghanistan. Of course, the West does not have an optimistic view of such involvement. Many Western politicians believe that Iran is meddling in Afghan issue. But, both Iran and Afghanistan deny such accusations. In his official presentations on Iran, President Karzai time and again has referred to Iran as a “helpful partner.” Yet, the question is that the West, particularly the US, is not positive about Iran’s involvement in Afghanistan. They are suspicious of the extent of the Iranian role in the Afghan crisis. The crisis in Afghanistan has forced the NATO to deal with the situation differently; that may promise the return of Taliban.
Re-emergence of Taliban?
Inside Afghanistan, the present dissatisfaction of the corruption within the current regime and its inability to function in limiting the role of the NATO forces who pledged to restore peace and stability and the continuing violence in the country that has claimed the lives of thousands of civilians, somewhat reflects the past. This, ultimately, may repeat the old scenario, i.e. return of Taliban to power. Equally important, however, responsible for the likely emergence of Taliban in Afghanistan, is the recent differences between the Afghan president and the US high level officials. On the one hand, the US is pessimistic about the role of Karzai in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Afghan president is criticising the US role in the country, saying that “the US is an occupying force pursuing her own national interest.” It seems that the development so far has led the Americans to act independently without having Karzai involved in peace talks with Taliban. Although in the beginning both Karzai’s government and the US have been involved in negotiations with Taliban to break with Al Qaeda and work on peaceful purposes, the recent scenario indicates that the US is involved unilaterally. Karzai himself shed light on the matter. In his recent public confirmation, the Afghan president disclosed that the US is holding direct talks with Taliban, a development that the US so far hasn’t publicly acknowledged.
read the full paper on http://www.dsalert.org/endgame-in-afghanistan/265-irans-role-in-afghanistan
Source: Defense & Security Alert (DSA)
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