A New Revolution In Iran

A New Revolution In Iran
2009,06,27

A second revolution in Iran would have great implications on the rest of the region today. If the protests calling for new elections and more freedom in Iran succeed the geopolitical map of the Middle East could well be redrawn.

Think of the implications for a minute, starting with Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Israel, the Gulf and beyond.

Iraq: a more moderate regime in Tehran would be less intrusive in the internal affairs of its neighbour and would rebalance the political Sunni-Shia equation.

A change of regime in Iran would not necessarily mean that Tehran would turn its back on its fellow Shias in Iraq, but if a government that is friendlier to the West takes over from the ruling theocracy run by the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and relations with the United States in particular are amended, Shia groups such as the Mehdi Army run by Moqtada Sadr, would have a much harder time.Syria: a regime change in Tehran, again on condition that it is more friendly to the West and open to rejoining the international community, would place into question the current relationship between Syria and Iran.

In the event that Tehran and Damascus drift apart as a result of a second revolution in Iran, it would place the government of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in a precarious situation, leaving the Syrians once again out of the cold.

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